2015 Elections: Why APC And Tinubu May Lose Lagos State (1) By Ola’ Idowu

The cracks may look papered and the
All Progressive Congress (APC) in
Lagos after its primaries across the
state would believe the party is still
united and should coast to victory in the
elections in 2015, but they may wake up and
find the opposition Peoples Democratic Party
(PDP) in Alausa and to be candid I wouldn’t
be surprised one bit.
Let me admit that some of the candidates in
APC whose political ambitions were
stonewalled are known to me in one form or
the other, but my analysis and opinion here
are totally rigorous and devoid of sentiments
or malice. Wole Soyinka just described
President Goodluck Jonathan as the biblical
Nebuchadnezzar, and while I certainly agree
with him, I would like to say we have a
Nebuchadnezzar and Emperor Nero rolled
into one in Lagos state and that man
unfortunately is APC chieftain Bola Tinubu.
Nebuchadnezzar in the sense that he has
allowed the spirit of grand delusion take over
him completely which like the biblical
Aramean (present day Syria) King saw him
become delusional and began to boast of all
his achievements and conquests to the extent
of turning himself into a god to be
worshipped by the people. God Almighty
made him fully insane, losing all of his
sanity, dethroned him for seven years before
restoring him back to the throne and he then
learnt to praise the true God. Emperor Nero
on his part is more associated with the term
“fiddling while Rome was burning”, but his
major problem was his tyranny and
arrogance towards the people he ruled which
led to disobedience and wars against him.
The same arrogance you can find on the part
of Tinubu and those within his inner circle
still enjoying his political clout.
Like Nebuchadnezzar, I wouldn’t be shocked
if PDP takes over Lagos state at least for the
next eight years starting from 2015 so as to
humble Tinubu, and make him realise
whatever he has become in Lagos and to the
Yoruba people is not by any act of perfection
of his but just by the mercies of God.
Tomorrow APC would all things being equal
“select” its gubernatorial candidate and
pointers are that the anointed candidate by
godfather Tinubu, Akinwunmi Ambode would
be selected. I say selected because judging
from the outcome of the primaries for the
state House of Assembly, preferred
candidates from the Tinubu camp scored over
95% of the votes in their constituencies in
some cases 100% in what was supposed to
be open and fair primaries, thus its clear
Ambode would be selected on Thursday
December 4th with a large proportion of the
votes at the primaries.
The situation report from all the different
constituencies where the House of Assembly
primaries were held, was that party delegates
were instructed to vote in full for any
candidate anointed by Tinubu. They were
simply told at the election venues that the
godfather had asked them all to vote for just
one person. It’s the same procedure to be
adopted for Ambode’s victory and some
candidates vying, may have zero votes put
behind their names if they don’t step down
before Thursday.
You wonder why should Lagos state with all
the talk of progressivism be run that way?
What is the essence of attending the US
Democratic party’s convention and not
bringing back any ideas from there? Did
Tinubu just attend to have a photo-op and
boost his own political status or was he there
to learn one or two new things to help move
his own party forward? You had the better
part of a year for succession planning even if
you wanted to have some level of control in
the party as a leader in it, together with
‘Tunde Fashola why didn’t you take the most
part of the year to plan the race for his
successor? Why all the last minute rush and
deception that smacks of the archaic politics
still being played in Lagos state?
The APC (all through its metamorphosis in
Lagos state) has become a victim of its own
success in the last 16 years and you
shouldn’t be shocked so many people want
to share in that success, after-all they all
worked for it too. For one man to believe he
alone is the architect of the whole success
would be stretching it to the level of grand
delusion and just like Nebuchadnezzar he
would soon be dethroned by God just so he
can learn who is the Almighty. In 2007 when
Action Congress was not even yet as
successful as this, we had lots of candidates
who wanted to succeed Tinubu, and luckily
I’m sure through divine guidance a man
foretold in Fashola was given the ticket and
he hasn’t disappointed.
His performance over the last eight years
(with plenty of work yet to be done in mass
populated areas) has further made the party
now called APC a victim of its own success
and so many more candidates want to
succeed him. In an age where even in the
United Kingdom, century old parties like the
Conservatives are seeing members crying out
for open primaries rather than the age long
style of selection of candidates that only
ensures the elites and private school tutored
boys get into government, Lagos state under
Tinubu is preserving the Conservative style
where only his own cronies. family members,
relatives and children whose fathers are
known get into position in the state yet we
call ourselves progressives, democrats or
forward thinking.
What does it cost Tinubu and APC in Lagos
state to organise a proper primary and state
convention like its done in countries where he
has visited and been seen photographed in
their own democratic conventions?
Its even worse when you perceive that the
same Tinubu looks to be a misogynist and
finds it hard to give women opportunities
except they are his close family members and
relatives. In 1999, he found it hard to work
with Kofo Akerele-Bucknor and they parted
ways in 2002. Maybe you did blame it on the
lady and excuse Tinubu, but he went on to
have the same problem with another deputy
this time a male. Compare it with Fashola
who had Sarah Sosan as his deputy from
2007 and they had a brilliant working
relationship. The powers that be which of
course is Tinubu decided without explanation
that Sosan had to be dropped in 2011 and
brought another female in Orelope-Adefulire
and yet Fashola had a no issues working
with her till date. It leaves one wondering if
truly Tinubu isn’t the problem considering he
couldn’t work with a female deputy and if he
isn’t a misogynist - someone who finds it
hard to trust women and their abilities except
in his case they are his family members or
relations. -
Take a look at the House of Assembly
primaries and you find lots of women either
not returning as candidates for the party or
they were not given a chance at all. In
Oshodi-Isolo 2 constituency the female
candidate there a current state legislator was
routed by a fresher Ladi Ajomale, son of the
APC state chairman Henry Ajomale. In
Amuwo-Odofin 2 constituency, the female
candidate a state legislator was also
defeated by a Tinubu favoured candidate. In
Ikeja 1 constituency Kenny Saint Brown (KSB,
popular musician and younger sister to Kenny
Ogungbe) was not even given much of a
chance as she lost by a wide margin to
another fresher just like her Jimi Mohammed,
son of Lai Mohammed the APC National
Publicity secretary.
Though KSB is quite new to the political
scene one would have thought been a woman
(a sector of our society and politics that can
be classed as vulnerable people) she should
have been given more support and help to
achieve her dreams. You may say its politics
and the majority wins but compare it with
another popular face Nollywood actor,
Desmond Elliot totally new to politics but
defeating an incumbent Kabiru Lawal to win
in Surulere Constituency 1 and then you now
the APC is possibly a party led by
misogynists. Take a look also at Ikeja
Constituency 2, the only female candidate in
that constituency out of several male
contenders was first disqualified by the APC
state screening committee citing the fact that
she has no political experience. A candidate
who has been with the party since 1999
under Alliance for Democracy (AD) attended
several meetings of Bola Ahmed Tinubu
Campaign Organisation (BATCO) those days
when its head office was at Aromirein Ikeja.
A candidate who has held political positions
within the Local Government (Ikeja LG/Ojodu
LCDA) and you say such person has no
political experience. In any case even when
the folly was rectified and they went to
primaries, the godfather brought a certain
Damola Kasumu with zero political
experience, who is a nephew to Tinubu to be
declared the winner. The female candidate
was given no chance, the rest of the
candidates too no chance in hell just because
the godfather wants to compensate his
nephew.
The Kasumu according to reports widely
written about him in the Nigerian press is
said to be the surviving child of the late
Abibatu Mogaji (a woman Tinubu related to
as his mother) but his known to be a
drunkard with slurred speech who
mismanaged the businesses he inherited from
his late mother and had ran into hard times.
While all that is none of my business really,
but the emerging trend is that in Lagos state
there is now a glass-ceiling on people’s
political ambitions and only Tinubu can
decide what you become in the state. I heard
Fashola some months back talking about if
having to choose between freedom and
development he did choose freedom any day.
The likes of Musiliu Obanikoro who defected
from the AD to PDP despite the help he got
from Tinubu, as well as Jimi Agbaje who has
never teamed up with the so called
progressives may be right after all. What's
the point calling yourself a progressive and
you have to be under one man’s group
thinking? You not allowed to make your own
decisions, pursue your own dreams whether
you fail or win, neither are you able to stand
out and criticise the the man if he is failing.